Indian refiners expect Russian crude supplies to tighten further through November as Chinese buyers outbid competitors and book cargoes in advance. To replace Russian barrels, Indian refiners are turning to alternatives including UAE Murban crude. Meanwhile, exports from major Middle East producers rebounded in September, supported by increased output from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
A market analysis by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell suggests the UAE's departure from OPEC may not trigger the sharp drop in crude oil prices that many analysts anticipate. Although the UAE accounted for roughly 12% of OPEC output, ongoing geopolitical conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz introduce significant market uncertainties. Future market dynamics will largely depend on how major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia respond.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the regional conflict and maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz during talks in Beijing. Meanwhile, fresh shipping incidents were reported near the waterway, including a boarding off the UAE port of Fujairah and an attack off Oman. A White House official stated that both leaders agreed the strategic strait should remain open to international shipping.
Oil loading operations at the UAE's Port of Fujairah resumed following a drone attack and fire, though it remained unclear if operations were fully back to normal. An Indian-flagged tanker carrying 80,800 tonnes of Murban crude departed safely for India after the strike. The port remains a vital strategic export bypass located outside the Strait of Hormuz.
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