Indian refiners anticipate that Russian oil arrivals will decline further in October and November 2026 due to contracted Russian export availability and aggressive buying from China, four trade sources told Reuters. According to analytics firm Kpler, Russian crude arrivals in India are set to fall to roughly 1.75 million barrels per day in September 2026, marking the lowest level since April.
A trade source cited by Reuters stated that Chinese buyers have maintained elevated demand, demonstrating a willingness to secure Russian crude shipments well in advance and at firmer prices than Indian purchasers. The tightening in Russian availability has been further exacerbated by disruptions at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where drone strikes repeatedly halted loadings and cut export volumes by roughly half.
Faced with reduced supplies of Russian Urals, Indian refiners have sought costlier replacement barrels, including UAE Murban crude—a close substitute for Urals—alongside Iraqi Basrah and Angolan grades. Shipping routes have also diverged, with Russian flows to China utilizing the Arctic Northern Sea Route, while shipments bound for India face security concerns in the Red Sea.
Concurrently, preliminary data from Kpler indicated that crude exports from key Middle Eastern producers rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day in September 2026. The increase was led by export gains from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, alongside a recovery in shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz to approximately 7.4 million barrels per day.
Sources
- Reuters · 2026-09-28
