China's old-age dependency ratio has overtaken its child dependency ratio for the first time, marking a significant demographic shift that is reshaping the nation's economy, healthcare system, and investment landscape, Arabian Business reported, citing the China Statistical Yearbook 2026 published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The official data indicates that China's old-age dependency ratio reached 23.1 per cent in 2025, compared with 22 per cent for children.
The milestone follows decades of falling birth rates, increasing life expectancy, and the structural legacy of the country's former one-child policy. The demographic transition is altering the domestic labour market and public finances, as age-related spending increases budgetary pressure while the working-age population expands at a slower pace.
To mitigate fiscal pressures, the Chinese government initiated statutory retirement age reforms in January 2025. Under the phased reforms, the retirement age for men will increase from 60 to 63 over 15 years, while the retirement age for women will rise from 55 to 58 for white-collar employees and from 50 to 55 for blue-collar workers. Additionally, starting in 2030, the minimum pension contribution period required to receive monthly benefits will rise incrementally from 15 to 20 years.
Damien Ng, Next Generation Research analyst, told Arabian Business that longer lives represent both an economic challenge and an achievement stemming from healthcare advances and higher living standards. Ng noted that market focus is expanding from lifespan to healthspan, generating sustained demand for healthcare services, preventive medicine, health management, and assistive technologies, while maintaining a constructive investment outlook on the extended longevity sector.
Sources
- Arabian Business · 2026-10-30
