Energy market analytics firm Kpler reported that Asian refiners, particularly in China, are heavily favoring Middle Eastern crude over Atlantic Basin supplies as maritime freight rates surge. Global shipping costs have quadrupled compared to pre-crisis baselines, closing traditional long-haul crude arbitrage routes.
Spot earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on the West Africa to China route reached a record $760,000 per day. According to Kpler, extreme freight fixtures resulting from constrained vessel availability have severely disrupted long-haul crude outflows from the Atlantic Basin.
As Persian Gulf exports and Saudi Red Sea logistics channels recovered, Middle Eastern barrels reclaimed market share across East Asia. Chinese buyers have prioritized Gulf crude, leaving approximately 13 unsold West African cargoes stranded for October loading alongside prompt November programmes.
The dynamic has driven West African crude differentials to multi-year lows. Angola's Hungo crude traded near a $20 per barrel discount to Dated Brent, while Nigeria's Usan crude shed nearly $2 per barrel in a single session, according to Argus Media data cited by Kpler.
Sources
- Kpler · 2026-10-09
