Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets are entering winter with a limited supply cushion, according to an analysis reported by Oil & Gas Journal. Higher utilization and new liquefaction capacity outside Qatar and the UAE have offset approximately 60% of Middle East LNG supply losses recorded since March, leaving global inventories low.
Morgan Stanley raised its fourth-quarter JKM price forecast to $27.50/MMbtu from $25/MMbtu, citing a slower Qatari restart and persistent winter risks. European Union gas storage stood at approximately 70% full in late September, compared to 82% a year earlier and a 10-year average of 87%. In response, Europe took about 57% of US LNG export volumes in September, up from 53% in August.
Disruptions to global gas shipments linked to conflict involving Iran have prompted China to diversify its supply sources. Venture Global is in early-stage talks with at least three Chinese buyers, including PetroChina, for potential long-term purchases exceeding 1 million tonnes per year from Louisiana projects. This follows an agreement signed in September by China Gas Holdings to purchase 0.5 million tonnes per year for 20 years starting in 2030, after direct Chinese purchases of US LNG had stopped in March 2025 following tariff disputes.
Despite firm cargo demand, shipping rates have remained subdued due to shorter transatlantic delivery routes and a rapidly growing fleet. Spark Commodities data showed modern two-stroke LNG carrier spot rates at about $25,750 per day in the Atlantic and $39,000 per day in the Pacific as of Oct. 6, supported by the delivery of approximately 55 new LNG carriers during the first seven months of 2026.
Sources
- Oil & Gas Journal · 2026-10-07
