According to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook reported by Gulf News, global commodity prices are forecast to rise 23 per cent in 2026 before easing by 7 per cent in 2027. The surge is attributed to Middle East conflict, shipping disruptions, and mounting constraints on energy supplies, which are impacting economies dependent on internationally traded goods.
Energy prices are expected to rise 32 per cent in 2026, reversing three consecutive years of decreases. The World Bank projects Brent crude will average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before dropping to $79 in 2027. Global oil production is forecast to decrease 5.2 per cent in 2026—the largest annual drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession—while consumption is expected to contract by 2.5 per cent.
Internationally traded food commodity prices are projected to rise roughly 10 per cent in 2026 and an additional 7 per cent in 2027, creating a cumulative rise of approximately 18 per cent. The World Bank noted that the increases are driven by grain shipping disruptions, El Niño weather patterns, and elevated fertilizer and fuel expenses.
Gulf News reported that for the UAE, higher global energy costs will affect logistics, transport, imported food, and retail prices. In an adverse risk scenario outlined by the World Bank, Brent crude could average $105 per barrel in 2027, with food commodity prices climbing 12 per cent above baseline levels.
Sources
- Gulf News · 2026-10-29
