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Gulf Producers Positioned to Gain Market Share in China as Iranian Supplies Fall

Gulf energy producers are poised to expand their market share in China as crude shipments from Iran decline amid regional conflict, according to Vortexa. Total Middle East crude imports into China are forecast to reach roughly 4.5 million barrels per day in October 2026.

Published Source: Vortexa Contains forecasts
Aerial view of a large oil tanker navigating open ocean waters
Photo: Vortexa

Gulf energy producers are positioned to secure higher market share in China as deliveries of Iranian crude diminish due to regional conflict, according to data from Vortexa.

Total crude arrivals from the Middle East into China are projected to reach approximately 4.5 million barrels per day in October 2026. Vortexa reported that Saudi Arabia and Iraq are driving this recovery, representing more than two-thirds of China's non-Iranian crude imports from the Middle East.

Saudi crude shipments to China are expected to exceed 2 million barrels per day in October 2026. Approximately 75% of those volumes are allocated to Chinese state-owned oil companies Sinopec and PetroChina.

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A Vortexa report indicates that Gulf crude producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are expanding market share in China. Non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude deliveries are projected to hit 4.5 million barrels per day in October 2026. Saudi exports are estimated to surpass 2 million barrels per day, largely taken by state refiners.

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