Indian refiners expect Russian crude supplies to tighten further across October and November due to export reductions and robust purchasing by Chinese buyers, according to trade sources cited by Reuters. China, the world's leading crude importer, has increased purchases of Russian oil amid tightening Middle Eastern supplies related to regional conflict, offering firmer prices and booking cargoes well in advance.
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler projects that Russian crude arrivals in India will fall to around 1.75 million barrels per day in September, the lowest level recorded since April. Indian imports of Russian oil had already fallen 16.5 percent month-on-month in August to roughly 2.1 million barrels per day, though Russia maintained its position as India's primary supplier, ahead of the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
Russian export volumes have also been constrained by logistical disruptions, notably at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where shipments decreased by approximately half following repeated drone-related halts to loading operations. Concurrently, seasonal Arctic shipping via the Northern Sea Route has facilitated crude flows directly to China, while Red Sea voyages toward India continue to face elevated security risks linked to Yemen's Houthis.
In response to diminishing Russian allocations, Indian refiners are turning to more expensive alternatives on international markets. Traders indicated that Indian processors have stepped up purchases of UAE Murban crude—a key substitute for Russia's Urals grade—alongside deliveries of Iraqi Basrah and Angolan crude.
Sources
- Baird Maritime · 2026-09-28
