Around 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and 2 million bpd of refined products have departed the Middle East on tankers over a recent seven-to-ten-day period, according to Vitol Chief Executive Russell Hardy. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Hardy stated that sustained flows of 10 million to 14 million bpd are vital to keep global energy markets balanced and avert oil prices jumping toward US$200 per barrel.
Hardy observed that global oil markets have faced consecutive disruptions this year, progressing from crude constraints to refined product shortfalls and elevated maritime shipping expenses. He noted that sharp increases in tanker freight rates have introduced unpredictability, adding roughly US$2 to US$4 per barrel in uncertain shipping costs across supply chains linking Middle Eastern exporters with Asian markets.
Addressing Asian demand, Hardy stated that China operated as a stabilizing buffer for the oil market in May and June by drawing down domestic petroleum inventories. In contrast, other developing Asian economies experienced strain due to tighter Middle East supply links and a lack of comparable reserve buffers.
Hardy added that tight conditions in refined product markets are expected to persist into winter, citing refining capacity losses in Russia and five months of reduced refining operations in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the G7 agreed on a coordinated 100-million-barrel crude and diesel release through the International Energy Agency to alleviate pressure, while Brent crude traded near US$98 per barrel.
Sources
- The Business Times · 2026-10-06
