Middle East Crude Discounts Deepen as Chinese Refiners Buy Atlantic Barrels

The Dubai crude prompt market spread narrowed sharply from +$11.03 to +$1.03 per barrel between October and November 2026 as regional supplies grew. Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait cut December official selling prices by $2 per barrel to protect Asian market share. Chinese refiners simultaneously increased purchases of Atlantic Basin crude, with West African Agbami landing about $4 per barrel cheaper than Abu Dhabi's Murban in Ningbo.

Published November 13, 2026 Source: Kpler

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Photo: Kpler

According to commodity intelligence firm Kpler, the prompt Dubai crude market structure narrowed sharply, with the M1–M3 spread dropping from +$11.03 per barrel on October 6 to +$1.03 per barrel on November 12, 2026. The spread approached contango as crude availability from Middle East producers expanded.

In response to heightened competition and rising availability, Middle East producers including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lowered their December Official Selling Prices (OSPs) by $2 per barrel to protect market share in Asia.

Chinese refiners intensified purchases of Atlantic Basin crude from West Africa and Brazil, supported by declining tanker freight rates. Kpler assessments showed the delivered value of prompt Nigerian Agbami crude into Ningbo, China, fell by $11.95 per barrel week-on-week to +$19.65 per barrel relative to the Dubai Swap for late-November loading.

At these pricing levels, prompt Agbami cargoes delivered into China were approximately $4 per barrel cheaper than Abu Dhabi's Murban grade, creating an economic incentive for Asian refiners to source West African crude over Gulf grades.