Global seaborne bauxite volumes climbed around 3% (2.8%) year-on-year in September 2026 to 20.4 million tonnes, according to data from Signal Ocean published by the American Journal of Transportation. The annual increase was driven primarily by shipments from Guinea, which rose over 20% compared to September 2025, although month-on-month volumes eased as the local wet season restricted port operations.
China absorbed the majority of the cargo expansion, recording a 21.2% year-on-year surge in bauxite arrivals during September. Conversely, shipments entering the United Arab Emirates plunged by more than 60% over the same month, which Signal Ocean attributed to maritime shipping disruptions in the Arabian Gulf. Indian bauxite imports also dropped 37% year-on-year due to high domestic inventories.
Looking toward the fourth quarter of 2026, Signal Ocean projected weaker global bauxite trade flows and reduced Capesize bulk carrier tonne-mile demand. The anticipated slowdown stems from Guinea's annual export quota of 150 million tonnes introduced in June 2026—18% lower than 2025 volumes—requiring a sharp reduction in loadings following a 21% year-to-date surge.
Signal Ocean noted that because Guinea supplies most of China's imported bauxite, the anticipated export slowdown is expected to feed into lower Chinese arrivals, although existing port stockpiles and cargoes currently at sea may temporarily buffer the impact.
Sources
- American Journal of Transportation · 2026-10-20
