Gold prices climbed above $4,150 an ounce on Monday as weaker United States employment figures led financial markets to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in October. According to Invezz, spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,158.17 an ounce, while US December futures advanced 0.6% to reach $4,186.40.
The price increase took place even as futures markets continued to price an 87% chance of a Fed rate hike occurring by December. Market expectations for an October increase dropped to approximately 22% from 64% a week earlier, following US Bureau of Labor Statistics data reporting that September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%.
Institutional and official-sector buying has continued to support the bullion market despite macroeconomic headwinds, including the US 10-year Treasury yield lingering near 5.26%. World Gold Council data cited by the source showed physically backed gold ETFs drew $18 billion in global inflows in August—the second-highest monthly inflow on record—taking total holdings to 4,189 tonnes, while US-listed gold ETFs added $3.8 billion in September.
Official reserve accumulation also bolstered prices, with China's central bank purchasing approximately 20 tonnes of bullion in August, representing its largest monthly addition since October 2023. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted in research cited by Kitco that strong sovereign purchases remain central to their $4,900 year-end price forecast.
Invezz reported that geopolitical risks, including active fighting in Yemen and unresolved Middle East tensions, continue to provide an underlying floor for safe-haven demand. Société Générale strategists noted bullion is balanced between structural central bank and ETF demand and pressures from high yields and a strong US dollar, with market attention now shifting to the September consumer price index release scheduled for October 14.
Sources
- Invezz · 2026-10-05
