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OCBC Raises Aluminium Price Forecast Amid Slower Gulf Smelter Output Recovery

OCBC has lifted its end-2026 aluminium price forecast to roughly US$3,150 per tonne due to subdued recovery across Gulf smelters. GCC smelter production growth slowed to 2 percent month-on-month in August, while Chinese output rose 4.7 percent year-on-year. Chinese unwrought aluminium and product exports also increased by 17.3 percent during the month.

Published Source: BusinessToday Contains forecasts
Photo: BusinessToday

OCBC has revised its end-2026 aluminium price forecast upward to approximately US$3,150 per tonne from an earlier projection of US$3,050. The bank attributed the revision to a slower-than-anticipated rebound in Gulf aluminium production, BusinessToday reported.

At the end of September, three-month aluminium contracts on the London Metal Exchange were trading at US$3,214 per tonne. Production growth across smelters in the Gulf Cooperation Council decelerated to 2 percent month-on-month in August, down from 6.2 percent recorded in July, following regional supply disruptions.

In contrast, aluminium output in China expanded by 4.7 percent year-on-year in August, sustaining near-record production levels to help mitigate shortfalls from the Gulf region. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products also grew by 17.3 percent year-on-year over the same period.

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